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Red Sea Maritime Trade – Suez Canal Traffic and Houthi Attacks

That the Red Sea blockade is one more fake, if not fabricated, disruption and disorder (act of war), plotted and hyped by terrorists, extremists and market and media monopolies, may come to no surprise of any conspiracy theory fan, after the all. Meaning, after the earlier blockade of the Suez Canal by the B/S Ever Given, after the embargo of the Chinese mainland port terminals by Covid arrangements, after the crash of B/S Dali in Baltimore Bridge and after the block chain of other related incidents, too numerous to list here.

Salacious conspiracy theories and complot speculations aside, the international shipping industry must not give in to threat and intimidation by terrorists and extremists or play into their hands. Instead, they must call on the table the cards of Houthi and of their unlawful backers, (Iranian or other). So call on this international relations and security bluff. Especially when it seems that there is no real truth into it (bite), except of empty threats, fake dangers or fabricated risks (bark).

The reason is the underlying power equations, which are the ones which ultimately prevail in international relations. On the one side are the Yemen terrorist groups and their external collaborators, instigators and accomplices. On the other side are the international shipping and trade industries, the global security and order and finally the wide world. It therefore takes no professional gambling skills to estimate game risk and chance, to value the bet and call on the numbers.

On the other hand, it is true that terror strikes are asymmetric. On this, any military academy cadet hoping to pass 2nd term exams, will tell you that however fearful asymmetric (terrorist) tactics are, they do not have a chance against symmetric tactics in dynamic battle confrontations (and explain why, briefly and concisely). In other words, there is no strike of strategic genius here but simple arithmetic calculation, as elementary in pure mathematics (inter alia) as it can get.

For these reasons the shipping industry must be more combative here. Not give in to terror threat and intimidation of the terrorists in the Red Sea, to sustain normal maritime traffic and persevere with the Red Sea and Suez Canal route. Liaise with operational military and strategic commands as required and directed and continue their normal business. Also, not to surrender to commercial temptations for around Africa diversions. Common experience says that the medium to long term interest usually prevails over short – term interest (in normal conditions).   

The shipping and maritime trade industry, correctly stay clear of politics. The leaders of the industry are no Churchills or Roosevelts and they are not expected to be. Yet, the Russian and the Chinese Foreign Ministries will do well to invite the ambassadors of Iran in Moscow and Beijing respectively, for relevant clarifications and deliberations, at the earliest.

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